Bitcoin traded at $85,246 on 4 October, after another unsuccessful attempt to recover September’s high. US hiring has slowed, but the dollar and long-term yields have yet to fall together. The weekend recovery needs more confirmation before it looks like a renewed uptrend.
The quotes in this brief are from 12:20 UTC on 4 October, or 21:20 KST. Bitcoin was trading then; dollar and Treasury readings reflect the final session on 2 October. The charts below are the saved layouts opened on 5 October.
Slower hiring leaves an inflation question
September payrolls rose 29,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and hourly earnings increased 0.1% monthly and 3.0% annually. July was revised from a 21,000 gain to a 10,000 loss; August’s gain fell from 162,000 to 133,000. Together, the revisions removed 60,000 jobs. Hiring looks weaker than the earlier releases suggested. BLS employment report
August PCE inflation, released on 30 September, was 0.3% monthly and 3.4% annually; core inflation was 0.2% and 3.0%. Real consumption grew 0.6%. The release also incorporated annual revisions. BEA income and spending report
The Fed unanimously raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September. Our reading is that weaker hiring alone does not establish a case for reversing that decision while inflation remains elevated. September FOMC statement
Another retreat from $87,000
Bitcoin reached $87,396 on 21 September, fell to $82,563 on 28 September, then recovered to $87,220 on the jobs-release day, 2 October. It closed that day at $84,518.
The saved 12-hour perpetual chart also shows the push into the $87,000s and the later correction. Its high label reads 87,385.1. Whatever contribution the jobs report made, the observable result was another failure to sustain buying near the previous high.
TradingView · BTCUSDT perpetual, 12 hours. The 5 October capture title read 85,728.7 USDT. The high label 87,385.1 is the layout’s own mark, not the 21 September spot high of $87,396. The $85,246 figure above is the 4 October spot quote.
The dollar retains most of its September rise
DXY reached 102.21 on 1 October and closed near 101.93 on 2 October. That was a daily decline, but most of the advance from around 99 in early September remains intact.
A renewed Bitcoin test of its highs would face a different backdrop if the dollar kept declining. A return toward 102 would leave the recent dollar strength in place. This is a condition to monitor, rather than an assumption that the two assets must move in opposite directions.
TradingView · DXY, 12 hours. The 5 October capture title read 102.306. The high label 102.535 is the layout’s own mark, not the 1 October daily high of 102.21. The 101.93 figure above is the 2 October daily close.
The 10-year still yields about 5.28%
The US 10-year yield fell as low as 5.157% on 2 October but finished at 5.277%. That is about 11.5 basis points above 5.162% on 24 September. Lower yields during the jobs session did not last into the close.
Higher Treasury yields raise the return investors seek when taking additional risk. Bitcoin has recovered despite that pressure but remains below its previous high. Lower long-term yields during the next breakout attempt would offer a more supportive backdrop.
TradingView · US10Y, chart footer 1440 minutes. The 5 October capture title read 5.264%. The high label 5.342% is the layout’s own mark, not the 2 October daily close of 5.277%.
A recovery needs to hold above the highs
The assessment remains mixed. A recovery through $87,220–87,396, followed by a pullback that holds above the zone, would distinguish the next attempt from the last two. Falling dollar and Treasury readings would strengthen that interpretation.
A loss of $83,888 would instead bring the $82,563 low from 28 September back into consideration. These are observed price references, not orders or projected targets.
| Bitcoin spot reference | Significance |
|---|---|
| $87,220–87,396 | 2 October and 21 September highs; watch for a sustained recovery |
| $85,650 | 30 September high; an intermediate reference above current price |
| $83,888 | 2 October low; a check on the recent recovery |
| $82,563 | 28 September low; the bottom of the recent range |
The next inflation dates matter
September CPI is due 14 October at 8:30 a.m. ET, or 21:30 KST. The next FOMC meeting is 27–28 October. September PCE follows on 29 October at 8:30 a.m. ET, after the meeting. The Fed will therefore have a different set of inflation releases available before and after its decision. BLS calendar, FOMC calendar, BEA release schedule
Until then, the useful test is whether Bitcoin can remain above its recent highs while pressure from the dollar and long-term yields eases.
Data: Historical Bitcoin levels use completed Binance BTCUSDT spot daily candles on UTC boundaries, rounded to whole dollars. USDT is dollar-linked and can differ from USD. Daily macro readings use Yahoo Finance DXY and 10-year yields. Charts are the saved TradingView layouts opened on 5 October: BTC perpetual 12-hour, DXY 12-hour, and US10Y with a 1440-minute footer. Bitcoin’s 4 October daily candle remains incomplete.
Earlier coverage: 25 September FOMC brief · 6 September jobs brief
