One line
The last brief’s sentence repeated. $80,000 opened again, and closed in the same week. On 3 September, Waller’s session, Bitcoin’s daily high was $82,300 and the close $81,270. On 4 September, the August jobs session, the low was $78,660 and the close $79,661. Spot now is about $79,821. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%. The day before the print, Waller said he would lean toward holding if the next two weeks of data kept the disinflation going, and that a hike at the 15–16 September meeting could be appropriate if August showed that improvement was fleeting. He expected the jobs report to look like the recent trend. It did not. The inflation print is still ahead. Do not collapse this into one direction.
Snapshot: afternoon KST on 6 September 2026 (Saturday). US and Korea cash are the 4 September close. BTC is same-day spot. Charts: NVDA / TSM / Hynix / DXY on 4-hour; BTC and the US / Japan 10-year on 12-hour.
Bitcoin
BTC is about $79,821. The 1 September brief said the next sentence was whether $80,000 holds again. That zone opened once more. Daily high on 3 September: $82,300. Close: $81,270.37. The prior brief’s high at $81,479 was taken out.
It was not held. On 4 September — the payrolls session — the high was $81,427.75, the low $78,660, the close $79,660.77. Same pattern as Warsh day. Clear it, lose it in-session. 5 September close: $79,831.75. The 12-hour pane high is $82,829, a bit above the daily spot high. $73,000 and the old box top at $67,000 are still the downside watches. An $82k high is not a regime label.
| Levels | |
|---|---|
| Resistance | $82,829 (12-hour) · $82,300 (3 September daily) · $80,000 (cleared and lost again) |
| Pivot | $79,000–$79,800 (here) |
| Support | $78,660 (payrolls-day low) · $73,000 |
| Floor | $67,000 (old summer-box top, still a floor candidate) |
BTC 12-hour: pane high $82,829. Payrolls-day close was below.
Semis — the US names rallied; Hynix lost the watch
Nvidia closed $217.44 on 1 September, just under the last brief’s $218 hold. On 4 September the high was $234.76 and the close $230.36. The post-earnings high at $230.47 was taken out. $218 held.
TSMC high on 4 September $429.82, close $428.91. $405 still holds. $435 does not.
SK Hynix is the other line. Close on 1 September: 1.693 million won, sitting on the 1.69 million watch. 3 September low 1.558 million, close 1.596 million. 4 September 1.647 million. 1.69 million is gone. One of the last brief’s “weight to the downside” conditions is open. Do not cover the complex with the Nvidia line.
Samsung Electronics closed 255,500 won on 4 September, below 261,000 on 1 September.
KOSPI 4 September 6,687.21, versus 6,835.80 on 1 September. The 18 August Tuesday high at 7,216.62 has not come back.
| Name | One line | Watch |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $218 held, $230.47 cleared | Hold $230 / lose $218 again |
| TSM | $405 held, $435 not | Break support → $375 / recover and hold $435 |
| 000660 | Lost 1.69M, around 1.65M | Fail to reclaim 1.69M vs retest 1.558M |
NVDA 4-hour: above $218. Through $230 as well.
TSM 4-hour: support held. $435 is still ahead.
Hynix 4-hour: 1.69 million is not a hold.
Payrolls · Waller · dollar · yields
Fix the prints first.
BLS August employment: nonfarm payrolls +162,000. That is above the 31,000 average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. Unemployment rate 4.1%, unchanged. Average hourly earnings for all private employees +0.3% to $37.75, +3.1% year over year. June revised from +20,000 to +31,000. July revised from −23,000 to +21,000. Combined, June and July are 55,000 higher than previously reported. Food services and drinking places +59,000. Local government education +42,000. Manufacturing +16,000. Information −23,000.
Governor Waller, 3 September, Reuters NEXT: inflation remains meaningfully above the FOMC’s 2 percent goal. If the data due over the next two weeks keep the disinflation going, he would be inclined to support holding. If August shows that improvement was fleeting, it may be appropriate to raise the policy rate on 15–16 September. He expected the employment report to look like the recent trend. His policy call, he said, would be heavily influenced by August inflation. He agreed with Chair Warsh that forward guidance is not appropriate now. That was a conditional sentence the day before payrolls. This brief does not put words in his mouth after the print.
Then the tape.
DXY closed 99.67 on 1 September. The last brief’s 99.2 reclaim was intact that day. Close on 3 September: 99.00. 99.2 did not hold. 4 September 99.16, live about 99.16. The August low at 98.56 is still intact.
US 10-year 1 September 4.80%, 4 September 4.78%. The above 4.75% watch is still open. This is not a settle under 4.60%.
Japan 10-year 12-hour pane high 3.027%. 3% printed. Spot on the pane is about 2.90%. Last brief’s 2.95%–3% hold is not a hold. 2.83% is still below. Do not read it as the US 10-year.
The Treasury coupon buyback expansion noted in the last brief starts 9 September. Levels before the calendar. US cash is closed 7 September for Labor Day.
DXY 4-hour: 99.2 was reclaimed, then lost on the Waller session.
US10Y 12-hour: still above 4.75% after payrolls.
JP10Y 12-hour: high 3.027%. 3% tagged, now ~2.90%.
Levels · positioning
| Now | Watch | |
|---|---|---|
| BTC | $79,821 · high $82,300 | Re-hold $80,000 / defend $73,000 |
| Sentiment | F&G 73 · Greed | 1 September 69 → 4 September 74 → today 73. Greed is not a one-way lock |
| S&P 500 | 4 September 7,718.60 | Up from 7,631 on 1 September. Not the same day as BTC’s $82k high |
| Gold | about $4,477 | Up from $4,348 on 1 September. Still below ~$4,624 on 21 August |
| KOSPI | 6,687 | 7,217 not recovered |
Spot ETF weekly totals are left empty here. A missing or zero Farside slice is a collection gap, not a confirmed zero-flow print. Do not invent the number.
S&P and Nvidia were up in the jobs week while Bitcoin tagged $82k and faded. Hynix lost its watch. Same read as the last brief. Not one line.
Scenarios — the story changes if
Base
$80,000 opened and closed again. Payrolls ran above the 12-month average. Waller’s hold condition still has the inflation print ahead. DXY 99.2 is not a hold. US 10-year 4.75% is. NVDA is above $218. Hynix is below 1.69 million. Split tape stands. Before the 15–16 September FOMC: does $80,000 hold again / does Hynix reclaim 1.69 million.
Weight to the upside if
- BTC holds back above $80,000
- NVDA holds $230 and TSM reclaims $435
- Hynix reclaims 1.69 million, the US 10-year falls back under 4.60%, and KOSPI moves toward 7,217
Weight to the downside if
- BTC loses $78,660 and fails $73,000
- NVDA loses $218 again and Hynix retests 1.558 million
- The dollar reclaims and holds 99.2 with the US 10-year stuck above 4.75%
A wick through a level that is bought back the same session is another shake, not “it’s over.”
Short FAQ
Hot payrolls means a hike?
The print was larger than the prior 12-month average. Waller said his call would lean on August inflation. That print is not in yet. FOMC is 15–16 September.
It cleared $82k — is that a buy?
The high is a fact. The payrolls-day close was below. The next sentence is whether it holds.
Are semis fine?
Nvidia and TSMC are above last brief’s supports. Hynix lost 1.69 million. Not one line.
Related
After 3.7% PCE and Warsh: BTC Tagged $81k and Gave It Back
After the Treasury buyback: BTC 76k, semis on a different temperature
