One line
The split tape from the last brief has not closed. The rate side did confirm. July PCE was 3.7% year over year, 3.3% core. The Jackson Hole keynote was Kevin Warsh, and he called the 2% PCE target “firm, fixed.” The dollar reclaimed 99.2. The US 10-year is back above 4.75%. Bitcoin tagged $81,478 — it cleared $80,000 — and failed to hold it on the Warsh session. Nvidia beat and reclaimed $218. Do not write risk-on off the earnings line.
Snapshot: afternoon KST on 1 September 2026. US cash is the 31 August close. Korea is the 1 September session. BTC is the same-day spot. Charts: NVDA / TSM / Hynix / DXY on 4-hour; BTC and the US / Japan 10-year on 12-hour.
Bitcoin
BTC is about $79,071. The 23 August brief said the tape leans up only if $79,500–$80,000 is held. That zone opened once. Daily highs: $81,272.62 on 25 August, $81,478.87 on 28 August. $80,000 was cleared.
It was not held. On 28 August — Warsh’s speech day — the low was $76,888 and the close $77,845.87. The print above $80,000 died in the same session. $73,000 and the old box top at $67,000 are still the downside watches. An $81k high is not a regime label.
| Levels | |
|---|---|
| Resistance | $81,479 (28 August high) · $80,000 (cleared and lost) |
| Pivot | $79,000–$79,500 (here, last brief’s hold line) |
| Support | $73,000 (first pullback from last brief) |
| Floor | $67,000 (old summer-box top, still a floor candidate) |
BTC 12-hour: $80,000 cleared. Same day, lost. The next sentence is whether it holds again.
Semiconductors — the print cleared, the index did not confirm
Nvidia fiscal Q2 FY27 revenue was $96.221 billion (+18% q/q, +106% y/y). GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin 75.0%. Diluted EPS: GAAP $2.46, non-GAAP $2.22. Q3 guide: revenue $108.0 billion ±2%, gross margin 74.0% ±50bp. The outlook assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China.
The stock did not rhyme with that sentence on the print day. 26 August closed $209.66, under the last brief’s $214.50. The next session ran to $230.47 and closed $227.98, reclaiming $218. 31 August closed $220.78. That is a post-print reclaim, not a one-way semi tape.
TSMC tagged $429.64 on 27 August. $435 is still out. 31 August $415.32. The 24 August low $405.15 kept the $405–$411 band.
SK Hynix tagged KRW 1,788,000 on 27 August — the 1.79M retest from last brief — then printed KRW 1,653,000 on 28 August. 1 September is about KRW 1,700,000, sitting on the 1.69M watch. Samsung Electronics is KRW 260,000 on 1 September.
KOSPI is 6,812.93 on 1 September. The 18 August Tuesday high 7,216.62 is still unrecovered.
| Name | Read | Watch |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Beat, lost $214.50 on the print day, reclaimed $218 | Lose $218 again / retest $230.47 |
| TSM | Held $405, failed $435 | Break of support points to $375 / a held reclaim of $435 |
| 000660 | Tagged 1.79M, back near 1.70M | Lose 1.69M and fail to reclaim vs hold 1.79M |
NVDA 4-hour: print day and the next session are different candles. Above $218.
TSM 4-hour: support held. $435 is still out.
Hynix 4-hour: 1.79M was not held. Sitting above 1.69M.
Dollar, US 10-year, Japan 10-year
Fix the official prints first.
July PCE: +0.2% m/m, +3.7% y/y. Core: +0.2% m/m, +3.3% y/y. The Q2 GDP second estimate stayed 1.5% annualized. In the same release the Q2 PCE price index was revised to 5.3% (+0.2pp) and core to 3.6% (+0.2pp).
Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole on 28 August, his 100th day as Chair. The 2% PCE target is “firm, fixed,” and price stability is not self-executing. The numbers he read: 12-month PCE 3.7%, six-month 4.1%, jobless rate 4.1%. He asked the room not to call the outline forward guidance.
The tape then filled the last brief’s watches.
DXY was 98.80 on 21 August Friday. It is about 99.50 now, with a high of 99.73 in the Warsh session (28 August ET). The 99.2 reclaim printed. The 4-hour pane’s low at 98.56 matches the last brief’s watch.
The US 10-year dipped to 4.64% on the PCE/earnings day and sits near 4.76–4.78% now. The hold above 4.75% watch is open again. This is not a settle under 4.60%.
The Japan 10-year was 2.88% on the last Friday, with a 2.95% retest on the watch list. Nikkei reported the 10-year at 3% on the morning of 1 September, a three-decade high. The directly captured 12-hour pane sat near ~2.90%. Do not read it as a copy of US yields.
| Watch | |
|---|---|
| US10Y | Hold above 4.75% vs break back under 4.60% |
| DXY | Hold above 99.2 vs lose 98.56 again |
| JP10Y | Hold 2.95%–3% vs fade back to 2.83% |
The larger Treasury long-dated buybacks from the last brief start 9 September. August already showed that the schedule is not the sentence. The level is.
DXY 4-hour: 99.2 is back. 98.56 matches the prior watch.
US10Y 12-hour: above 4.75% after PCE and Warsh.
JP10Y 12-hour: Japan 10-year, captured directly. Pane ~2.90% at capture; Nikkei’s morning print was 3%.
Levels and sentiment
| Item | Now | Watch |
|---|---|---|
| BTC | $79,071 · high $81,479 | Re-hold $80,000 / keep $73,000 |
| Sentiment | F&G 69 · Greed | 66 on 23 August → 73 on the 28th → 69 today. Greed, not a one-way stamp |
| S&P 500 | 7,686 (31 August) | Flat in the week bitcoin tagged $81k |
| Gold | about $4,486 | Down from ~$4,624 on 21 August Friday |
| KOSPI | 6,813 | 7,217 still out |
BTC funding was about +0.0085% at 00:00 UTC on 1 September, in the same area as the +0.0100% from 23 August. That is not a squeeze confirmation. This brief leaves the spot-ETF week blank: the Farside collection for 25–29 August came back 0 here — closer to a failed pull than confirmed zero flows — so the number is not printed.
The S&P barely moved while bitcoin tagged $81k and gold faded after Warsh. That is the same split as the last brief. Bitcoin moved first. US growth and yields did not share the sentence.
Scenario — what would change the story
Base
PCE and Warsh confirmed yields higher. The dollar reclaimed 99.2. BTC cleared $80,000 and lost it the same day. NVDA beat and reclaimed $218 after trading under $214.50 on the print day. The tape is still split. Before a direction bet: does $80,000 hold again, and do 4.75% and 99.2 hold?
Leans up if
- BTC re-holds above $80,000
- NVDA keeps $218 and TSM reclaims $435
- The US 10-year moves back under 4.60% and KOSPI presses 7,217
Leans down if
- BTC loses $73,000 and fails $67,000 as support
- NVDA loses $218 again and Hynix loses 1.69M without reclaiming
- The dollar holds above 99.2 and the US 10-year stays above 4.75%
A brief break of a low that snaps back is another shake, not “it’s over.”
Short FAQ
Nvidia beat. Is that risk-on?
No single line. The print cleared. The print-day close was under support, then the next session reclaimed it. Yields and the dollar sat on the other side.
Does tagging $80,000 mean bitcoin can run?
The tag is a fact. The Warsh-day close was back below. The next sentence is whether it holds.
Who gave the Jackson Hole keynote?
Kevin Warsh, on 28 August — his 100th day as Chair. He called the 2% target “firm, fixed.”
Related
Why BTC $76K Matters After the Summer Box Break
Why BTC $65K Matters as Long Yields Hit Semiconductors
Snapshot: afternoon KST on 1 September 2026. BTC is same-day spot (Binance). US equities, DXY, and yields are the 31 August cash close or the live print. Korean index and single names are 1 September. PCE and GDP: BEA. NVDA: company IR. Warsh: Jackson Hole remarks. Japan 10-year 3% report: Nikkei. Charts are owned TradingView captures (4H/12H). Information only — not investment advice.
